You probably are saying, "That's quite a range!" But, I'm giving myself leeway. Here are my guesses for times as I continue to train.
Swim: I have to swim 2.4 miles in 2 hours and 20 minutes. That's the cut-off. This converts to 3:37/100 pace in a yards pool. My pace 01:47/100yd to reach 4224 yards in 1 1/2 hours. Out of the water no later than 9 AM (8:30 AM at the earliest) with a 7 AM start.
Bike: I have to hit the 112 miles by 5:30 PM to meet the bike cut-off, and 2:45 I must hit the 60 mile cut-off (11.43 mph for 10 hours). My fastest goal is 6 1/2 hours, at a 18 mph bike pace, to arrive in transition by 3:30 PM and latest would be 5:30 PM at a 8 hour 14 mph pace.
Run: My goal is to run a 5 1/2 hour 26.2. The cut-off requirement to pass the 13.1 mile mark by 9:45 PM, a 14:53 min / mi pace. Let's say I start the run at 3:30 PM, and I run an overall 11:00 min/mile pace, I would cross the finish line at 9:10 PM.
If I calculate my previous and only half-ironman completed in 2009, I would make it across the finish line at 8:30 PM. This was over 8 years ago, and I didn't train for the swim or bike. These are my estimates from above:
Estimates (These are my fastest estimates)
- Race starts 7 a.m.
- Done with swim at 8:30 AM: estimate 1 1/2 hours
- 10 Min - Transition
- Start bike 9:00 AM
- Finish bike 3:30 PM estimate 6 1/2 hour
- 10 Min - Tranisition
- Start run 3:40 PM
- Finish run at 9:10 PM: estimate 5 1/2 hour