Monday, April 17, 2017

IMWI2017 Guesses #Crazyrunninggal

I have been imagining myself running across the finish line in the Ironman Wisconsin. Before that, I see myself dipping my toes in the water, ready for the swim, I transition to the bike, then ride my bike, mile by mile with cadence ease. Then on to the run. I image the times I cross the finish line are to be between 13 1/2 to 15 hours.  

You probably are saying, "That's quite a range!" But, I'm giving myself leeway. Here are my guesses for times as I continue to train.

Swim: I have to swim 2.4 miles in 2 hours and 20 minutes.  That's the cut-off. This converts to 3:37/100 pace in a  yards pool.  My pace 01:47/100yd to reach 4224 yards in 1 1/2 hours. Out of the water no later than 9 AM (8:30 AM at the earliest) with a 7 AM start.

Bike: I have to hit the 112 miles by 5:30 PM to meet the bike cut-off, and 2:45 I must hit the 60 mile cut-off (11.43 mph for 10 hours). My fastest goal is 6 1/2 hours, at a 18 mph bike pace, to arrive in transition by 3:30 PM and latest would be 5:30 PM at a 8 hour 14 mph pace.

Run: My goal is to run a 5 1/2 hour 26.2. The cut-off  requirement to pass the 13.1 mile mark by 9:45 PM, a 14:53 min / mi pace. Let's say I start the run at 3:30 PM, and I run an overall 11:00  min/mile pace, I would cross the finish line at 9:10 PM.

If I calculate my previous and only half-ironman completed in 2009, I would make it across the finish line at 8:30 PM. This was over 8 years ago, and I didn't train for the swim or bike. These are my estimates from above:

Estimates (These are my fastest estimates)
  • Race starts 7 a.m.
  • Done with swim at 8:30 AM: estimate 1 1/2 hours
    • 10 Min - Transition
  • Start bike 9:00 AM
  • Finish bike 3:30 PM estimate 6 1/2 hour 
    • 10 Min - Tranisition
  • Start run 3:40 PM
  • Finish run at 9:10 PM: estimate 5 1/2 hour 
Let's see how close I come.

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